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Who has the power: handset makers or operators?

The relationship between handset makers and operators of cellular networks seems to come straight out of Christensen's second book (The Innovator's Solution). CTIA today quotes Dow Jones Newswire:

Wireless Service Providers and Manufacturers Alter Power Balance

In late summer 2003, Vodafone gave an ultimatum to 10 of the world's largest wireless phone manufacturers and required them to comply with its thousands of technical and design requirements, otherwise Vodafone refused to purchase from the companies complied altering the balance of power in the billion wireless phone business and giving service providers control over the look and feel of wireless phones. (Source: Dow Jones Newswire)

I've been thinking about this relationship for a while, and where the power is going to go, and if the above is any guide, I got it right: The operators have far more control over scarce resources (coverage) than the handset makers (the electronics content of a phone is increasingly generic for most of the market). So what is happening is a modularization in one market and a re-integration (operator-specific handsets) in an adjacent market, shifting the balance of power -- and maybe profits?

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